The economy has hit bottom and is recovering

22/10/2023
22/10/2023

Although it was forecasted to be a historically difficult year, in reality, what the business community and the Vietnamese economy had to face in 2023 was even more severe.

Experts' forecasts for the last quarter of 2023 and the year 2024 are mixed: fluctuations in the global economy and the upcoming challenges for Vietnam are quite significant. Then, we note that the important point is to eliminate bottlenecks in procedures, and capital... to help companies overcome difficulties.

Nền kinh tế đã chạm đáy và đang hồi phục - Ảnh 1.

About this matter, we have 6 points to take into account:

1. The urgent solution is to reduce interest rates

The Vietnamese economy depends heavily on those of other external countries and faces major challenges.

Nền kinh tế đã chạm đáy và đang hồi phục - Ảnh 2.

PhD Nguyen Duc Do, Vice Dean of the Institute of Economics and Finance

The situations of European and American countries have an influence on their recession situation following high-interest rates.

However, the growth target of 6 to 6.5 percent set by the National Assembly for this year will be very difficult to achieve, because in general, the Vietnamese economy still faces many challenges.

On the other hand, inflationary pressures no longer exist so it is difficult for companies to maintain high borrowing rates: Currently, the average borrowing rate is still high, and it is necessary to drop by around 2% moreover, at the average level of the period 2013-2021.

Real estate companies have high demand, but many of them are over-leveraged and cannot borrow. It is necessary to quickly lower interest rates.

2. Increase the competitiveness of the national economic sector

Despite the economic situation for the 9 months of 2023, relatively positive solutions proposed such as the stabilization of the foreign exchange market; exemption and extension of taxes and fees; Visa extension for foreigners... have had a positive impact on the economy.

Nền kinh tế đã chạm đáy và đang hồi phục - Ảnh 3.

PhD Nguyen Quoc Viet, Vice Dean of the Institute of Economic Research and Policy

The foreign investment (FDI) sector is experiencing significant growth in equity capital, but low growth in domestic private investment capital shows that private sector resilience and adaptation are problematic. exports are the point of creation of the trade surplus and are highly dependent on the FDI sector and have also declined.

3. The government is drastic, but the political delay is significant

Unfortunately, in Vietnam, the 3 current drivers of economic growth, exports, domestic consumption, and investment, are quite dismal: the future global economy is quite uncertain.

Nền kinh tế đã chạm đáy và đang hồi phục - Ảnh 4.

Master Tran Anh Tung, University of Economics and Finance in Ho Chi Minh City

According to the economic growth graph for the 3 quarters of 2023, we can say that it is very unlikely to achieve a growth rate of 6.5% for the whole year 2023.

The segment of middle-income workers, it is quite indeterminate that the real salary and bonuses received in the context of companies facing many difficulties, so in general the tendency to save is greater than spending and from now until the end of the year, it is difficult to recover.

4. Consolidate existing dynamics, exploit new growth drivers

In order to regain the momentum for rapid and sustainable development, it is necessary for the National Assembly and the Government to implement numerous policies and solutions that ensure macroeconomic stability, improve resilience, strengthen traditional driver growth, and create enough space to operate the models effectively. new growth drivers.

Nền kinh tế đã chạm đáy và đang hồi phục - Ảnh 5.

PhD Can Van Luc, Chief Economist of BIDV Bank

For example, it’s important to ensure that businesses negatively affected by the decline in exports, investment, and consumption are supported by making better use of signed trade agreements, implementing trade promotion more effectively, and linking supply and demand; Continue to promote the reform of administrative procedures, promptly remove obstacles in fire prevention and firefighting regulations.

5. Real estate is not just difficult, but extremely difficult.

The story of the real estate market in 2023 is not only difficult but too difficult. The biggest problem here, accounting for 70%, is that legality in the market is not resolved. Entangled in the 3 levels of law, sub-legal documents, and law enforcement. There are documents under the law that do not comply with the provisions of the law, there are documents under the law that have not been detailed to implement the law...

Nền kinh tế đã chạm đáy và đang hồi phục - Ảnh 6.Mr. Le Hoang Chau, Chairman of the Ho Chi Minh City Real Estate Association

6. Every entrepreneur supports a young entrepreneur in setting up a business

In addition to the impact of the economic downturn, in recent years, small and medium-sized enterprises have also been afraid of competing with large companies and foreign companies. Faced with this pressure, many companies have had to scale back their activities.

Nền kinh tế đã chạm đáy và đang hồi phục - Ảnh 7.

Mr. Dang Hong Anh, Chairman of the Vietnam Young Entrepreneurs Association

In the context of these common challenges, the member companies of the Vietnam Young Entrepreneurs Association have also had creative and flexible solutions to overcome. For example, launching and implementing support for young entrepreneurs to start a business as part of an individual model. In concrete terms, each entrepreneur benefits from the support of a young start-up entrepreneur in terms of advice and market orientation and can even invest capital if the startup project is feasible. Entrepreneurs' café models and dialogues between provincial leaders and local young entrepreneurs continue to be promoted to eliminate difficulties for businesses and create favorable conditions for the business environment for businesses.