(DTTCO) The leader of a travel company asked: "I don't understand how localities can instantly aggregate the t...
(DTTCO) The leader of a travel company asked: "I don't understand how localities can instantly aggregate the total number of tourists, total revenue of hundreds, even thousands of services in a day, something that no country in the world has been able to do."
According to custom, after major holidays or New Year's Day, both on the Gregorian and Lunar calendars, for a few days, functional agencies such as the Tourism Administration, the General Statistics Office, local departments like the Department of Culture, Sports, and Tourism... announce very impressive numbers of foreign tourists and domestic tourists in early-year meetings and in the media.
For example, in the past year 2023, Vietnam welcomed 12.6 million international visitors; during the 7 days of the 2024 Lunar New Year, there were 11 million domestic tourists, and it is projected to receive another 18-20 million visitors in 2024.
But scientists and even tourism experts seem not to trust these statistics. In recent days, there has been widespread discussion in the press and on social media about this province or that city inflating the number of tourists to boast achievements or prepare public opinion for investment in grand tourism projects here and there. Just before the holiday, there was even a program on VTV1 discussing the absurdity of tourism statistics.
It needs to be affirmed immediately that social statistics are very important. Policy-making agencies making decisions, issuing projects, without relying on accurate statistical data, is extremely dangerous.
Statistics show the "condition" of the subject (the entire society, an area of activity, a province, a company) at a certain time T. Whether that condition is improving or deteriorating, balanced or skewed, in order to provide rational policy directions and technical solutions.
A few years ago, a province in the northern midlands during a festival season announced that it had attracted more than 6 million participants. This information sparked enthusiasm among real estate businesses, leading them to build dozens of hotels and restaurants. This, in turn, prompted the provincial government, districts, social organizations, and local residents around the heritage site to rush to build hotels, guesthouses, and rental rooms in abundance, hoping to make big profits in the following years.
But unfortunately, the statistical agency of the province either doesn't know or doesn't disclose an important fact: the number of people staying overnight during the festivals is extremely low. This is because most people attend the festivals and then leave on the same day, while those from far away visit the temples and shrines and then return to Hanoi to enjoy the capital's atmosphere. As a result, the ambitious "leap forward" plan fails miserably.
So what's wrong with our tourism statistics work? Firstly, the speed of statistics is too fast. Most countries usually compile social statistics after 3, 6 months, rarely providing daily or weekly statistics like in Vietnam. A typical example of this "surfing" speed.
After the April 30th and May 1st holidays in 2023 ended, just two days later, on May 4th, the media simultaneously reported: "The Tourism Administration estimates that during the April 30th and May 1st holidays, the country welcomed approximately 7.3 million visitors, including about 7 million domestic visitors (an increase of 40%), and over 300,000 international visitors. Total estimated revenue reached 24,000 billion VND (an increase of 9%). Average room occupancy was 60%, with some places reaching 100%."
Thanh Hoa was the locality with the highest number of visitors, about 1,195,000 visitors (an increase of 33.1%); total revenue reached about 2,865 billion VND (an increase of 48.3%). Can Tho welcomed 982,000 visitors (about 1,800 international visitors), with total revenue estimated at 523 billion VND. Phu Tho had a remarkable increase, welcoming 5.4 million visitors (accounting for 74% of the country).
Meanwhile, Ho Chi Minh City welcomed 950,000 visitors (an increase of 126.2%); about 48,000 international visitors; and total estimated revenue reached 3,130 billion VND (an increase of 94%). Hanoi welcomed 719,000 visitors (69,500 international visitors); with total revenue reaching 2,400 billion VND. Kiên Giang, mainly Phu Quoc, welcomed about 264,938 visitors (a decrease of 9.4%), with room occupancy at 54%; total revenue reached over 132.5 billion VND (a decrease of 24.3%).
It's truly astonishing how, just two days later, even with the mobilization of all staff from the statistical agencies at all levels working 24/7, such super-fast statistics can be compiled for 64 provinces and cities, not to mention the difficulty of statistical fluctuations and rapid movement of tourists, which is extremely challenging, if not impossible.
Mr. Nguyen Van My, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Lửa Việt Tourism Company, had to exclaim: "I don't understand how localities can instantly aggregate the total number of tourists, total revenue of hundreds, even thousands of services in a day, something that no country in the world has been able to do?".
Secondly, the statistical methods are not scientific. So how is the current statistical method conducted? Provinces and cities report quickly to central-level authorities after one working day. Provinces and cities compile by gathering information from reports from hotels, resorts, guesthouses, tourist attractions, and tourists arriving in groups or individually.
From these statistical figures, the national statistics are compiled. This statistical method leads to the problem of some foreign tourists being counted multiple times, as they may visit Ho Chi Minh City for a few days, then go to the Mekong Delta, Da Nang, Hanoi, and then to Son La...
This is akin to having only one benevolent family appear in the achievement reports of 5 organizations such as the women's union, the fatherland front, the youth union, the veterans' association, and the Agent Orange victims' association in the district.
It is time for Vietnam's tourism industry to professionalize and improve its statistical methods and techniques to be more accurate. In the short term, the Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism should unify the nationwide viewpoint with very clear criteria for statistical forms. If the current bottom-up reporting method continues, allowing each locality to report in its own way, it will lead to fluctuating figures without any purpose.
Furthermore, tourists from neighboring countries who visit festivals like Huong Pagoda, Bai Dinh, and Ba Den should not be included in tourism statistics because they return on the same day, with very low spending. This lump-sum calculation, although it may seem like a lot, yields very low effectiveness. For example, Dong Thap welcomed 3.9 million visitors, with revenue of 1,050 billion VND; on average, only 269,000 VND per person (source: dulich.dongthap.gov.vn, January 23, 2020)... Instead, statistics should focus on overnight stays during festival days.
For foreign tourists, data can be collected through airports, seaports, and land border checkpoints, as foreigners entering Vietnam must go through immigration procedures without needing repeated counting through provincial reports. Although this method still has flaws in distinguishing between tourist and business visitors, short-term tourists, and long-term residents doing business in Vietnam.
Lastly, modern statistical methods used by many countries today do not rely on head counting (classically referred to as sheep counting) or aggregate statistics from scattered sources on paper; they use Big data with personal identification codes.
It is through this method that any tourist arriving in Singapore, whether through Changi Airport or Woodlands land border, will be known where they are, where they are going, and when they leave.
Vietnam is aiming for 18 million international tourists in 2024 and 25 million tourists in 2030. To accurately assess the current situation and plan investment for technical infrastructure, social infrastructure, human resource development, priority development directions, and focused investment in regions and sectors, it is essential to change the statistical system to be more scientific and accurate, otherwise it will fall into Utopia (illusion).
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