MBS believes that electricity consumption growth has improved significantly since the third quarter of 2025, thereby supporting business results for enterprises.
In the analysis report released on September 23, MB Securities (MBS) said that in the third quarter of 2025, electricity consumption growth has improved compared to the relatively low growth rate of the second quarter, although it is still lower than the plan of the Ministry of Industry and Trade of 10-12% compared to the same period last year (YoY).
In July, August and the first 20 days of September alone, consumption growth was about 7.7% YoY, especially in September, which recorded an increase of 13% YoY, showing a clear recovery in demand.
Specifically for industry groups in the third quarter of 2025 (up to September 20), hydropower mobilization is forecast by MBS to increase by about 3% YoY - not too high growth because in the same period last year, factories were also mobilized well.
With the possibility of ENSO (referring to both El Nino and La Nina climate phenomena) maintaining a neutral phase in the third quarter and lasting until the end of this year with a high probability (55% -90%), the national rainfall will remain at the average level of many years, with some areas having higher rainfall such as the North and especially the Central region. Some enterprises with factories in this area expect to benefit such as Ha Do (HDG), Refrigeration and Electricity Engineering (REE).
Coal-fired power mobilization increased slightly by 6% YoY, quite similar to the growth in demand of the whole system. Imported coal prices decreased by about 25% YoY and by 17% from the beginning of the year, thanks to which, the price of mixed coal supplied to factories decreased by about 15% YoY, supporting the reduction in coal-fired electricity prices. In July and August, the FMP electricity market price (spot electricity price) was recorded as very low, reaching only about 737 VND/kWh, factories mainly followed Qc (contract output) to mobilize.
According to MBS, in 2025, there was a clear trend of improving profit margins of thermal power plants, supported by high Qc deliveries from the beginning of the year, the delivery cycle also improved from one month at a time last year to 3-6 month deliveries. This trend will be maintained in the third and fourth quarters of 2025.
For gas-fired power, mobilization increased by 12% YoY, mainly due to the fact that plants using gas in the Southeast such as Phu My cluster, Nhon Trach 1&2 were mobilized more actively from the low base last year. Ca Mau 1&2, in the opposite direction, recorded a slight decrease in mobilization.
Similar to coal-fired power, the assignment of high Qc in the context of low electricity market prices significantly supported the improvement of gross profit margins. Regarding gas prices, a slight decrease of about 4% was recorded, reaching an average of 8.4-9.1 USD/mmbtu, supporting the selling price of gas-fired power, but this is still a high level compared to the remaining power sources.
Renewable energy mobilization increased by 11% YoY, mainly due to increased capacity because this is still the priority source of power mobilized in the system.
With the above developments, MBS forecasts that Gia Lai Electricity (code GEG) will have the strongest profit growth, reaching VND 64 billion in Q3/2025 (compared to the same period last year, a loss of VND 27 billion). According to the analysis unit, GEG's output remains stable, but the selling price of wind power has increased sharply when Tan Phu Dong 1 was officially negotiated at a price twice as high as the temporary price last year, helping to increase revenue and gross profit margin.
Nhon Trach 2 Petroleum Power (code NT2) is forecast to have the second strongest growth, with net profit reaching about VND 120 billion, up 173% YoY. According to MBS, NT2's output will reach about 750 million kWh, a slight increase compared to Q3/2024 and only 3% lower than Q2/2025. Gas prices remain high, leading to high selling prices. In Q3, NT2 is likely to stick to Qc to mobilize due to low market prices and this continues to be a factor supporting improved profit margins.
According to Mekong Asean